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What to Look For From MRNA

Key points to remember

  • Analysts estimate EPS at $4.55 versus $6.46 in Q2 2021.
  • Revenues are expected to grow at a slower pace as the global pandemic subsides.
  • On July 29, Moderna received an order from the US government for 66 million doses of its vaccine, with an option to purchase an additional 234 million doses.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) saw its revenue soar from almost nothing a few years ago to $6.1 billion last quarter amid strong global demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. In the last big order, Moderna agreed to supply the US government with 66 million doses of its COVID-19 booster vaccine with an option to purchase up to 234 million additional doses. But despite this, Moderna faces major challenges as demand for its vaccines slows amid declining COVID-19 cases in many countries around the world.

Investors will be watching closely to see if Moderna can maintain its rapid growth when the company reports earnings before market on August 3, 2022 for the second quarter of fiscal 2022. For the second quarter of fiscal 2022. For the second quarter of fiscal 2022, analysts believe Moderna will experience a sharp decline in earnings per share. (EPS), while incomes also fall.

Moderna’s vaccine began marketing in the United States under the name Spikevax after gaining full initial approval for use in people 18 and older by the FDA in late January 2022. The vaccine, which is administered in a two-dose series, had been available under the EUA designation from the FDA since December 2020. In late March 2022, the FDA approved a second booster dose of the vaccine for adults 50 and older and for certain immunocompromised people. Since then, Moderna has obtained clearance from a growing number of countries for the use of the vaccine, as well as its use in a growing number of different age groups.

Despite the company’s rapid growth, shares of Moderna have significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. The stock initially topped the market between early August and early October 2021. The stock then fell, followed by a rally through late November and then a sharp decline in the first week of March 2022 Since then, the stock has traded. essentially laterally in a wide band. Over the past 12 months, Moderna stock has posted a total return of -53.4%, significantly behind the -6.6% return of the S&P 500 as of August 2, 2022.

Commercial view.

Moderna Earnings History

Moderna released fiscal 2022 first quarter results that crushed analysts’ expectations. The company reported its fifth straight quarter of positive EPS after a long streak of per-share losses. Revenue rose 213.2%, driven largely by sales of Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine. The company said in its quarterly report that it has seen continued growth in its vaccine, albeit at a slower pace.

In its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 earnings report, Moderna beat analysts’ expectations. The company managed to make its first annual profit. Revenue increased nearly 13-fold from the prior year quarter, the highest on record. Moderna said it delivered 807 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine for all of 2021. Its board of directors approved a new share buyback program.

Analysts expect growth to reverse in the second quarter of fiscal 2022. EPS is expected to fall 29.6% year-on-year, making it the first drop since its earnings streak began in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. Revenue is also expected to decline 7.8% year-over-year. trimester.

Modern key statistics
Estimate for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 Q2 2021 Q2 2020
Earnings per share ($) 4.55 6.46 -0.31
Revenue ($M) 4,013.0 4,354.0 66.4

As mentioned, Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine is seeing its use expand. On July 17, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to Moderna’s vaccine for children as young as 6 months of age. The FDA amended its EUA to include the use of Moderna’s vaccine for children 6 months to 17 years old. Until then, the vaccine had been licensed for use in adults 18 years of age and older.

Additionally, in mid-July, Canadian and Australian regulators gave Moderna’s vaccine full or interim approval, respectively, for the use of its vaccine on children 6 months to 5 years old. Moderna recently submitted an amendment to the Conditional Marketing Authorization (CMA) with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for its vaccine to include children 6 months to less than six years of age in the European Union (EU).

Investors should check Moderna’s earnings press releases to see if it has entered into any new supply deals with other countries beyond the US government. Vaccines are treated as large contracts at the national level. Unlike some other covid-19 vaccine makers, with more diverse portfolios, Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine is its first and only marketed product. However, the company has other drugs and clinical trials that use its mRNA technology.

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